CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2018-07-05T04:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14018/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible in STEREO A COR2 on the W limb. It starts as a slowly brightening near the streamer before the CME is clearly visible. For this reason the start time can be anywhere between 02:39 (labelled by SIDC) and 13:09 (labelled by SWPC).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-07-10T11:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-07-09T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 2.2 Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 05/2212UTC Radial velocity (km/s): 258km/s Longitude (deg): 15W Latitude (deg): 3S Half-angular width (deg): 25 Notes: It was hard to analyse with only Stereo A providing useful information. A very faint return was tenuously observed in Lasco C2. The slow CME will likely be accelerated slightly by the solar wind, but it shows a negative shock on ENLIL. The Ensemble shows a wide spread through the 9th and 10th. Most likely to see Kp of 3 or 4, with low chance of a Kp5. The later CME appears to be far-sided, and not likely to impact Earth. A filament disturbance in the 5th evening in the NW quadrant did not show anything significant on Stereo A or SOHO. Space weather advisor: MOSWOC AMSLead Time: 89.17 hour(s)
Difference: 17.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2018-07-06T18:15Z
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